Change
What’s up Stackers?
I decided to change the structure of my weekly report.
There will be more content around my Bitcoin Aggregate Risk Model and less content around other stuff.
I guess that’s the best approach and you will probably find it more valuable.
Long story short, I am deleting sections ‘Weekly Market Overview’ and ‘Weekly Developers Overview’ and I am adding charts of all metrics that I aggregate inside my model.
(I am keeping the meme section though, so there’s nothing to worry about…)
Bitcoin Aggregate Risk Model
As of now, the Risk Score equals 2.51
It is calculated based on the Bitcoin price being at $28,336
Risk Score has historically been lower in 30,6% of the time
Metrics Summary
There’s also another change.
I am adding an extra column with the current values of metrics that I aggregate inside the Bitcoin Aggregate Risk Model.
Quick reminder → each metric goes from 0 to 10.
The higher the score, the higher the risk.
Metrics Deep Dive
Weekly Quicktake
To keep this weekly report somehow fun, in this section each week I will be writing whatever comes to my mind:)
This week, I think it is worth acknowledging the beauty of the model and the reason why I built it.
Do you see all of the metrics above?
Regularly checking out all of these metrics can get overwhelming.
Even if you were to manually look for confluences among these metrics, you still won’t be precise with your decision-making process.
Your thinking process would be something like ‘Okay this metric is kinda low, this metric is very low and this metric is somewhere in the middle. I should probably stack some sats’.
The problem is that such an approach just isn’t precise.
The optimal solution is to properly quantify and aggregate everything.
Also, looking at all of these long-term Bitcoin metrics is just time-consuming and the cool thing is that I abstracted away the need to spend time looking at each of these metrics.
If you don’t have time but you still want to understand the current risk of investing in Bitcoin at a given point in time, you just have to look at ‘Risk Score’.
That’s all it takes, as simple and elegant as that.
Lastly, the meme of the week
That’s it for today. If you enjoyed reading the Weekly Report, don’t hesitate to share it with others!
It will help the newsletter grow.
Cheers,
Mikołaj
Great report as always Mikolaj. I appreciate the return to core values here.